Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
114.8 – 156.4
37%63%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
121 – 120
Prediction missed · off by 21.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±16.2
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 39.49Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 221Event APEX 49.78Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 25.53Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 397.1 ±12.7
Season APEX 150Event APEX 72.04Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 26.03Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 58.33Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3933, 6106, 3522
67
/ 100 compatProjected
114.8 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 3933, 6106, 3522
Auto
24.4 23%
Teleop
56.4 53%
Endgame
25.9 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7546, 8740, 6652
73
/ 100 compatProjected
156.4 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 7546, 8740, 6652
Auto
18.8 12%
Teleop
83.4 55%
Endgame
50.2 33%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 22%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score114.8pts
Blue projected score156.4pts
Red win probability37%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 22%, blue 34%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -41.6
- Score range
- 94–177
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
307Season APEX397.1
24.4Auto18.8
56.4Teleop83.4
25.9Endgame50.2
58Consistency6
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 32 | 20 |
| teleop | 45 | 55 |
| endgame | 29 | 25 |
| foul | 15 | 20 |
| total | 121 | 120 |
Result
Final score
121 – 120
Prediction missed · off by 21.3 pts
Match videos
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