Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
348.78 – 230.57
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
213 – 214
Prediction missed · off by 76.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±11.2
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 173.05Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX 8.09Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 262Event APEX 167.64Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.5 ±13.1
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 119.85Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 31.61Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 79.11Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3478, 6200, 4635
82
/ 100 compatProjected
348.8 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 3478, 6200, 4635
Auto
77.0 22%
Teleop
192.1 56%
Endgame
75.0 22%
Strengths
- · 3478 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6017, 5932, 7421
82
/ 100 compatProjected
230.6 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 6017, 5932, 7421
Auto
42.1 19%
Teleop
124.0 55%
Endgame
60.8 27%
Strengths
- · 6017 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 32%
Supercharged: 4%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2 · Blue 0.8
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score348.8pts
Blue projected score230.6pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 118.2
- Score range
- 211–369
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Match context
Upset
Close match
High scoring
Playoff
Combined score 427 vs event baseline 113.
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
679.8Season APEX484.5
77Auto42.1
192.1Teleop124
75Endgame60.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 71 | 36 |
| teleop | 104 | 121 |
| endgame | 28 | 42 |
| foul | 10 | 15 |
| total | 213 | 214 |
Result
Final score
213 – 214
Prediction missed · off by 76.2 pts
Match videos
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