Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
145.41 – 107.38
62%38%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
128 – 154
Prediction missed · off by 32 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 364.9 ±14.9
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 52.22Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 9.55Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 83.64Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 307 ±16.2
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 38.14Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 221Event APEX 46.86Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 22.38Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4584, 9280, 3354
73
/ 100 compatProjected
145.4 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4584, 9280, 3354
Auto
24.9 18%
Teleop
78.8 57%
Endgame
35.2 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3933, 6106, 3522
63
/ 100 compatProjected
107.4 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 3933, 6106, 3522
Auto
22.8 23%
Teleop
55.6 56%
Endgame
20.3 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 37%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.02
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score145.4pts
Blue projected score107.4pts
Red win probability62%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 37%, blue 22%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 38
- Score range
- 87–165
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
364.9Season APEX307
24.9Auto22.8
78.8Teleop55.6
35.2Endgame20.3
2Consistency60
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 31 | 33 |
| teleop | 73 | 60 |
| endgame | 24 | 56 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 128 | 154 |
Result
Final score
128 – 154
Prediction missed · off by 32 pts
Match videos
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