Qualification · Qualification 71
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
79.11 – 101.45
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
56 – 173
Prediction correct · off by 47.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.4 ±14.6
Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 29.92Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 15.07Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129Event APEX 34.12Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.6 ±17.1
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 54.1Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 8.49Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 38.86Rank 6Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5932, 8740, 6702
51
/ 100 compatProjected
79.1 pts
~1.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 5932, 8740, 6702
Auto
20.1 27%
Teleop
31.6 42%
Endgame
23.1 31%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4584, 6170, 6652
57
/ 100 compatProjected
101.5 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 4584, 6170, 6652
Auto
13.3 13%
Teleop
50.4 49%
Endgame
38.5 38%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.49
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score79.1pts
Blue projected score101.5pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 31%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -22.3
- Score range
- 60–120
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
285.4Season APEX284.6
20.1Auto13.3
31.6Teleop50.4
23.1Endgame38.5
0Consistency58
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 17 | 18 |
| teleop | 31 | 96 |
| endgame | 8 | 59 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 56 | 173 |
Result
Final score
56 – 173
Prediction correct · off by 47.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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