Qualification · Qualification 68
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
168.72 – 44.83
82%18%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
273 – 71
Prediction correct · off by 65.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 327.2 ±16.2
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 105.52Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 52.67Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
4723Prepa Tecmilenio - EARTH - 4723
Provisional
Season APEX 54Event APEX 10.53Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 99.8 ±19.7
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 24.32Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
9053Prepa Tecmilenio - Iron Hawks
Provisional
Season APEX 19.5Event APEX -1.65Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
5133PrepaTec - Blue Steel
Provisional
Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 22.16Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6017, 5887, 4723
80
/ 100 compatProjected
168.7 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 6017, 5887, 4723
Auto
25.3 16%
Teleop
94.8 59%
Endgame
41.0 25%
Strengths
- · 6017 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3522, 9053, 5133
32
/ 100 compatProjected
44.8 pts
~0.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 3522, 9053, 5133
Auto
10.6 25%
Teleop
30.1 70%
Endgame
2.1 5%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 35%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.62
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score168.7pts
Blue projected score44.8pts
Red win probability82%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 35%, blue 22%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 123.9
- Score range
- 26–188
- Upset likelihood
- 18%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
327.2Season APEX99.8
25.3Auto10.6
94.8Teleop30.1
41Endgame2.1
38Consistency32
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 20 |
| teleop | 157 | 36 |
| endgame | 92 | 15 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 273 | 71 |
Result
Final score
273 – 71
Prediction correct · off by 65.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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