Qualification · Qualification 63
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
115.76 – 95
56%44%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
167 – 160
Prediction correct · off by 58.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.6 ±15.8
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 16.05Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 221Event APEX 44.65Rank 11Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 55.06Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±16.8
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 16.74Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 46.61Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 31.65Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9280, 6106, 4584
65
/ 100 compatProjected
115.8 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 9280, 6106, 4584
Auto
17.1 15%
Teleop
72.2 62%
Endgame
26.8 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3522, 5887, 3933
61
/ 100 compatProjected
95 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 3522, 5887, 3933
Auto
14.2 16%
Teleop
54.7 60%
Endgame
22.2 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.13
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score115.8pts
Blue projected score95pts
Red win probability56%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 21%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 20.8
- Score range
- 77–134
- Upset likelihood
- 44%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
348.6Season APEX139.5
17.1Auto14.2
72.2Teleop54.7
26.8Endgame22.2
9Consistency101
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 33 | 5 |
| teleop | 66 | 99 |
| endgame | 48 | 41 |
| foul | 20 | 15 |
| total | 167 | 160 |
Result
Final score
167 – 160
Prediction correct · off by 58.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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