Qualification · Qualification 59
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
81.76 – 138.59
33%67%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
45 – 163
Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 119.1 ±18.4
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 49.93Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
3794Prepa Tecmilenio WinT
Provisional
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 16.11Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
6832STEAMex
Provisional
Season APEX 21.5Event APEX 15.72Rank 42Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.3 ±15.6
Season APEX 129Event APEX 34.77Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
4723Prepa Tecmilenio - EARTH - 4723
Provisional
Season APEX 54Event APEX 8.64Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 95.18Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6348, 3794, 6832
51
/ 100 compatProjected
81.8 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 6348, 3794, 6832
Auto
15.2 21%
Teleop
29.6 42%
Endgame
26.3 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6702, 4723, 3354
76
/ 100 compatProjected
138.6 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 6702, 4723, 3354
Auto
24.5 19%
Teleop
74.5 57%
Endgame
30.8 24%
Strengths
- · 3354 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 26%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.73
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score81.8pts
Blue projected score138.6pts
Red win probability33%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 26%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -56.8
- Score range
- 64–157
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
119.1Season APEX420.3
15.2Auto24.5
29.6Teleop74.5
26.3Endgame30.8
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 19 |
| teleop | 11 | 96 |
| endgame | 13 | 33 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 45 | 163 |
Result
Final score
45 – 163
Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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