Qualification · Qualification 58
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
128.89 – 30.26
77%23%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
120 – 65
Prediction correct · off by 21.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±18
10565FARADAY- Prepa Tecmilenio
Provisional
Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 20.86Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
6606Prepa Tecmilenio Pink Hawks 6606
Provisional
Season APEX 19.4Event APEX -1.05Rank 40Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 109.08Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208 ±16.3
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 11.77Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 0.07Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 18.42Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10565, 6606, 6017
72
/ 100 compatProjected
128.9 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 10565, 6606, 6017
Auto
22.3 18%
Teleop
68.6 55%
Endgame
33.1 27%
Strengths
- · 6017 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9280, 10225, 5959
12
/ 100 compatProjected
30.3 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 9280, 10225, 5959
Auto
14.8 62%
Teleop
-6.4 0%
Endgame
15.4 65%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.95 · Blue 0.74
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score128.9pts
Blue projected score30.3pts
Red win probability77%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 25%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 98.6
- Score range
- 12–147
- Upset likelihood
- 23%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
279.7Season APEX208
22.3Auto14.8
68.6Teleop-6.4
33.1Endgame15.4
39Consistency32
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 0 | 22 |
| teleop | 84 | 34 |
| endgame | 31 | 4 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 120 | 65 |
Result
Final score
120 – 65
Prediction correct · off by 21.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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