Qualification · Qualification 51
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
103.65 – 110.74
48%52%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
100 – 102
Prediction correct · off by 6.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 307.9 ±17.3
4723Prepa Tecmilenio - EARTH - 4723
Provisional
Season APEX 54Event APEX 6.14Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 15.5Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 82.01Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 188.7 ±16.2
Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 48.94Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 36.43Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 25.37Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4723, 5959, 7421
59
/ 100 compatProjected
103.7 pts
~1.3 RP (regional)
Teams: 4723, 5959, 7421
Auto
20.0 21%
Teleop
37.8 40%
Endgame
37.3 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5887, 5932, 7102
62
/ 100 compatProjected
110.7 pts
~1.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 5887, 5932, 7102
Auto
23.3 20%
Teleop
71.6 63%
Endgame
19.3 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.28 · Blue 1.38
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score103.7pts
Blue projected score110.7pts
Red win probability48%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 28%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -7.1
- Score range
- 86–129
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
307.9Season APEX188.7
20Auto23.3
37.8Teleop71.6
37.3Endgame19.3
0Consistency57
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 19 |
| teleop | 44 | 36 |
| endgame | 17 | 42 |
| foul | 10 | 5 |
| total | 100 | 102 |
Result
Final score
100 – 102
Prediction correct · off by 6.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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