Qualification · Qualification 48
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
175.44 – 57.65
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
228 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 55.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 454 ±15.6
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 87.92Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 51.8Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
4775Aztech Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 35.72Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.9 ±18.8
Season APEX 150Event APEX 54.83Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
3794Prepa Tecmilenio WinT
Provisional
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 12.21Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
9060Prepa Tecmilenio - Desert Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 23.8Event APEX -9.39Rank 41Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3354, 11065, 4775
80
/ 100 compatProjected
175.4 pts
~2.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 3354, 11065, 4775
Auto
24.9 14%
Teleop
103.8 59%
Endgame
46.0 26%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7546, 3794, 9060
44
/ 100 compatProjected
57.6 pts
~0.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 7546, 3794, 9060
Auto
11.6 20%
Teleop
34.7 59%
Endgame
13.0 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 36%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.72
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score175.4pts
Blue projected score57.6pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 117.8
- Score range
- 40–193
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
454Season APEX208.9
24.9Auto11.6
103.8Teleop34.7
46Endgame13
66Consistency61
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 22 | 16 |
| teleop | 168 | 74 |
| endgame | 38 | 21 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 228 | 116 |
Result
Final score
228 – 116
Prediction correct · off by 55.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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