Qualification · Qualification 47
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
85.14 – 145.07
32%68%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
81 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 45.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.5 ±18.5
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 27.77Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 17.81Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 39.56Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.3 ±16.2
Season APEX 113.1Event APEX 9.73Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
9053Prepa Tecmilenio - Iron Hawks
Provisional
Season APEX 19.5Event APEX 1.52Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 133.82Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3480, 6170, 3933
56
/ 100 compatProjected
85.1 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 3480, 6170, 3933
Auto
18.4 23%
Teleop
44.5 57%
Endgame
15.8 20%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10225, 9053, 6017
83
/ 100 compatProjected
145.1 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 10225, 9053, 6017
Auto
23.5 17%
Teleop
73.6 55%
Endgame
37.3 28%
Strengths
- · 6017 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 20%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.89 · Blue 1.69
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score85.1pts
Blue projected score145.1pts
Red win probability32%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 20%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -59.9
- Score range
- 67–163
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
149.5Season APEX352.3
18.4Auto23.5
44.5Teleop73.6
15.8Endgame37.3
52Consistency68
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 19 | 31 |
| teleop | 30 | 6 |
| endgame | 27 | 7 |
| foul | 5 | 15 |
| total | 81 | 59 |
Result
Final score
81 – 59
Prediction missed · off by 45.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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