Qualification · Qualification 40
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
345.27 – 64.54
97%3%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
380 – 31
Prediction correct · off by 34.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.9 ±14.3
5133PrepaTec - Blue Steel
Provisional
Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 38.49Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 150.04Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262Event APEX 156.74Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.2 ±16.5
3794Prepa Tecmilenio WinT
Provisional
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 20.31Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 46.1Event APEX 24Rank 34Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 129Event APEX 20.23Rank 19Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5133, 3478, 4635
84
/ 100 compatProjected
345.3 pts
~2.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 5133, 3478, 4635
Auto
78.0 23%
Teleop
183.2 53%
Endgame
84.8 25%
Strengths
- · 4635 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3794, 9280, 6702
46
/ 100 compatProjected
64.5 pts
~0.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 3794, 9280, 6702
Auto
20.9 35%
Teleop
31.6 52%
Endgame
7.7 13%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 44%
Supercharged: 6%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.46 · Blue 0.38
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score345.3pts
Blue projected score64.5pts
Red win probability97%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 44%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 280.7
- Score range
- 48–362
- Upset likelihood
- 3%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
556.9Season APEX210.2
78Auto20.9
183.2Teleop31.6
84.8Endgame7.7
25Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 78 | 15 |
| teleop | 229 | 11 |
| endgame | 63 | 0 |
| foul | 10 | 5 |
| total | 380 | 31 |
Result
Final score
380 – 31
Prediction correct · off by 34.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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