Qualification · Qualification 38
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
114.6 – 73.54
63%37%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
63 – 72
Prediction missed · off by 26.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 146.5 ±17.7
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 37.4Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 61.52Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
10529BATS
Provisional
Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 15.68Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 141.9 ±19.1
4775Aztech Robotics
Provisional
Season APEX 56.1Event APEX 24.7Rank 14Record 6-4-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 27.28Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 21.56Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3480, 6348, 10529
69
/ 100 compatProjected
114.6 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 3480, 6348, 10529
Auto
19.9 20%
Teleop
44.6 45%
Endgame
35.7 36%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 27%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4775, 6170, 3522
48
/ 100 compatProjected
73.5 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 4775, 6170, 3522
Auto
15.7 20%
Teleop
50.8 64%
Endgame
12.3 16%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 27%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.02
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score114.6pts
Blue projected score73.5pts
Red win probability63%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 27%, blue 23%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 41.1
- Score range
- 56–133
- Upset likelihood
- 37%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
146.5Season APEX141.9
19.9Auto15.7
44.6Teleop50.8
35.7Endgame12.3
79Consistency64
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 4 |
| teleop | 36 | 29 |
| endgame | 14 | 39 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 63 | 72 |
Result
Final score
63 – 72
Prediction missed · off by 26.6 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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