Qualification · Qualification 33
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
117.24 – 94.27
57%43%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
96 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 27.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.4 ±18.6
5133PrepaTec - Blue Steel
Provisional
Season APEX 47.2Event APEX 44.35Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 41.58Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 31.31Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 297.4 ±16
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 72.04Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX 5.6Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
9213Tecuani
Provisional
Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 16.63Rank 18Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 74
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5133, 5887, 6170
69
/ 100 compatProjected
117.2 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 5133, 5887, 6170
Auto
26.5 22%
Teleop
72.1 59%
Endgame
23.6 19%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 27%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6348, 6200, 9213
55
/ 100 compatProjected
94.3 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 6348, 6200, 9213
Auto
6.2 7%
Teleop
55.6 63%
Endgame
26.2 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 27%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.15
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score117.2pts
Blue projected score94.3pts
Red win probability57%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 27%, blue 25%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 23
- Score range
- 76–135
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
153.4Season APEX297.4
26.5Auto6.2
72.1Teleop55.6
23.6Endgame26.2
80Consistency44
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 14 |
| teleop | 50 | 20 |
| endgame | 27 | 16 |
| foul | 5 | 10 |
| total | 96 | 60 |
Result
Final score
96 – 60
Prediction correct · off by 27.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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