Qualification · Qualification 28
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
73.68 – 130.9
33%67%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
120 – 119
Prediction missed · off by 29.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.2 ±13.9
Season APEX 160.6Event APEX 22.97Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 66.51Rank 20Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 113.1Event APEX -15.8Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 331.2 ±14.7
Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 72.32Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 66.4Event APEX -19.69Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 78.27Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11065, 6348, 10225
44
/ 100 compatProjected
73.7 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 11065, 6348, 10225
Auto
7.5 14%
Teleop
39.1 71%
Endgame
8.3 15%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7421, 4010, 5932
73
/ 100 compatProjected
130.9 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 7421, 4010, 5932
Auto
29.4 25%
Teleop
45.6 40%
Endgame
40.3 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score73.7pts
Blue projected score130.9pts
Red win probability33%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 25%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -57.2
- Score range
- 56–149
- Upset likelihood
- 33%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
336.2Season APEX331.2
7.5Auto29.4
39.1Teleop45.6
8.3Endgame40.3
65Consistency62
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 17 |
| teleop | 40 | 79 |
| endgame | 51 | 18 |
| foul | 15 | 5 |
| total | 120 | 119 |
Result
Final score
120 – 119
Prediction missed · off by 29.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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