Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
11.58 – 185.78
10%90%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
20 – 238
Prediction correct · off by 30.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.2 ±18.8
9053Prepa Tecmilenio - Iron Hawks
Provisional
Season APEX 19.5Event APEX -1.93Rank 38Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX -6.04Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
10565FARADAY- Prepa Tecmilenio
Provisional
Season APEX 40.6Event APEX 19.55Rank 23Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 364.3 ±17.3
3794Prepa Tecmilenio WinT
Provisional
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 14.21Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 81.5Event APEX 54.53Rank 5Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 117.04Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9053, 6200, 10565
17
/ 100 compatProjected
11.6 pts
~0.4 RP (regional)
Teams: 9053, 6200, 10565
Auto
4.6 36%
Teleop
1.0 8%
Endgame
7.1 56%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3794, 4584, 3478
79
/ 100 compatProjected
185.8 pts
~2.2 RP (regional)
Teams: 3794, 4584, 3478
Auto
26.5 13%
Teleop
108.9 55%
Endgame
61.2 31%
Strengths
- · 3478 anchors offense
- · Reliable endgame stack
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 17%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.42 · Blue 2.24
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score11.6pts
Blue projected score185.8pts
Red win probability10%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 17%, blue 40%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -174.2
- Score range
- -5–203
- Upset likelihood
- 10%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
230.2Season APEX364.3
4.6Auto26.5
1Teleop108.9
7.1Endgame61.2
167Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 7 | 42 |
| teleop | 11 | 154 |
| endgame | 2 | 42 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 20 | 238 |
Result
Final score
20 – 238
Prediction correct · off by 30.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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