Qualification · Qualification 22
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
81.7 – 119.06
39%61%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
13 – 249
Prediction correct · off by 99.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.6 ±16.3
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX 54.53Rank 9Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 77
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 6.92Rank 17Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 92
Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 20.25Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.7 ±13.7
Season APEX 262Event APEX 115.93Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 160.6Event APEX -1.78Rank 7Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 4.91Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6170, 7102, 3472
62
/ 100 compatProjected
81.7 pts
~1.1 RP (regional)
Teams: 6170, 7102, 3472
Auto
12.9 17%
Teleop
40.6 55%
Endgame
20.3 28%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4635, 11065, 3522
78
/ 100 compatProjected
119.1 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 4635, 11065, 3522
Auto
23.2 20%
Teleop
63.1 55%
Endgame
27.9 24%
Strengths
- · 4635 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 28%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.66
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score81.7pts
Blue projected score119.1pts
Red win probability39%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 28%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -37.4
- Score range
- 65–136
- Upset likelihood
- 39%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
191.6Season APEX455.7
12.9Auto23.2
40.6Teleop63.1
20.3Endgame27.9
95Consistency33
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 4 | 57 |
| teleop | 7 | 164 |
| endgame | 2 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 13 | 249 |
Result
Final score
13 – 249
Prediction correct · off by 99.3 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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