Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
39.74 – 0
66%34%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
35 – 15
Prediction correct · off by 9.9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.2 ±18.8
4723Prepa Tecmilenio - EARTH - 4723
Provisional
Season APEX 54Event APEX 25.38Rank 21Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX 2.98Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
3794Prepa Tecmilenio WinT
Provisional
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 11.38Rank 35Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.4 ±19.2
4371Prepa Tecmilenio - ART
Provisional
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX -0.96Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
4782PrepaTec - Borrebots
Provisional
Season APEX 44.9Event APEX 0.1Rank 29Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 113.1Event APEX -13.86Rank 37Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4723, 6200, 3794
32
/ 100 compatProjected
39.7 pts
~1.6 RP (regional)
Teams: 4723, 6200, 3794
Auto
13.9 32%
Teleop
7.4 17%
Endgame
21.9 51%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4371, 4782, 10225
8
/ 100 compatProjected
-14.7 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 4371, 4782, 10225
Auto
7.4 0%
Teleop
-16.3 100%
Endgame
-3.6 29%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 21%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.04
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score39.7pts
Blue projected score-14.7pts
Red win probability66%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 21%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 39.7
- Score range
- -18–58
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
259.2Season APEX204.4
13.9Auto7.4
7.4Teleop-16.3
21.9Endgame-3.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 6 | 9 |
| teleop | 24 | 6 |
| endgame | 5 | 0 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 35 | 15 |
Result
Final score
35 – 15
Prediction correct · off by 9.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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