Qualification · Qualification 17
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
89.3 – 143.88
34%66%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
65 – 181
Prediction correct · off by 30.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 190.3 ±16.6
10529BATS
Provisional
Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 28.64Rank 31Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 25.1Rank 25Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 53.5Event APEX 35.56Rank 13Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 91
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.6 ±14.9
Season APEX 43.9Event APEX 20.17Rank 10Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 63.4Event APEX 24.13Rank 24Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 99.58Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10529, 8740, 5887
66
/ 100 compatProjected
89.3 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 10529, 8740, 5887
Auto
19.4 24%
Teleop
30.0 37%
Endgame
31.4 39%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 27%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3480, 3472, 3354
91
/ 100 compatProjected
143.9 pts
~1.7 RP (regional)
Teams: 3480, 3472, 3354
Auto
30.6 22%
Teleop
72.6 53%
Endgame
33.9 25%
Strengths
- · 3354 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 27%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.66
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score89.3pts
Blue projected score143.9pts
Red win probability34%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 27%, blue 29%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -54.6
- Score range
- 73–160
- Upset likelihood
- 34%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
190.3Season APEX344.6
19.4Auto30.6
30Teleop72.6
31.4Endgame33.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 13 | 37 |
| teleop | 33 | 86 |
| endgame | 9 | 43 |
| foul | 10 | 15 |
| total | 65 | 181 |
Result
Final score
65 – 181
Prediction correct · off by 30.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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