Qualification · Qualification 11
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
147.75 – 75.01
71%29%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
322 – 93
Prediction correct · off by 96.1 points
Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 548.1 ±13.5
Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 45.71Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 237.3Event APEX 39.75Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262Event APEX 62.29Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 421.1 ±15.6
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX -6.14Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 18.86Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
6676Prepa Tecmilenio - Thunder Hawks - 6676
Provisional
Season APEX 45.9Event APEX 62.29Rank 26Record 5-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5959, 3354, 4635
92
/ 100 compatProjected
147.8 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 5959, 3354, 4635
Auto
34.7 25%
Teleop
68.3 49%
Endgame
35.8 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6200, 7421, 6676
66
/ 100 compatProjected
75 pts
~0.8 RP (regional)
Teams: 6200, 7421, 6676
Auto
12.3 17%
Teleop
38.9 55%
Endgame
20.1 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.85 · Blue 0.83
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score147.8pts
Blue projected score75pts
Red win probability71%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 21%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 72.7
- Score range
- 61–162
- Upset likelihood
- 29%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
548.1Season APEX421.1
34.7Auto12.3
68.3Teleop38.9
35.8Endgame20.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 75 | 28 |
| teleop | 134 | 41 |
| endgame | 93 | 24 |
| foul | 20 | 0 |
| total | 322 | 93 |
Result
Final score
322 – 93
Prediction correct · off by 96.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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