Qualification · Qualification 10
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
22.94 – 62.83
38%62%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
56 – 28
Prediction missed · off by 33.9 points
Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.5 ±15.7
Season APEX 66.4Event APEX 3.98Rank 33Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 91
Season APEX 150Event APEX 9.04Rank 8Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 9.92Rank 22Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 117 ±19.7
4371Prepa Tecmilenio - ART
Provisional
Season APEX 46.4Event APEX 36Rank 36Record 3-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
8741Prepa Tecmilenio - Raccoons
Provisional
Season APEX 17.7Event APEX 3.14Rank 43Record 2-8-0Status provisionalConfidence 73
Season APEX 52.9Event APEX 23.69Rank 15Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 80
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4010, 7546, 3522
31
/ 100 compatProjected
22.9 pts
~1.0 RP (regional)
Teams: 4010, 7546, 3522
Auto
0.0 0%
Teleop
9.3 72%
Endgame
3.6 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 24%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4371, 8741, 3933
57
/ 100 compatProjected
62.8 pts
~1.5 RP (regional)
Teams: 4371, 8741, 3933
Auto
10.1 17%
Teleop
35.0 60%
Endgame
13.6 23%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 24%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.48
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score22.9pts
Blue projected score62.8pts
Red win probability38%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 24%, blue 20%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -39.9
- Score range
- 8–78
- Upset likelihood
- 38%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
249.5Season APEX117
0Auto10.1
9.3Teleop35
3.6Endgame13.6
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 4 | 4 |
| teleop | 34 | 19 |
| endgame | 13 | 5 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 56 | 28 |
Result
Final score
56 – 28
Prediction missed · off by 33.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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