Final · Finals 2
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
231.45 – 331.79
22%78%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
188 – 191
Prediction correct · off by 92.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 484.5 ±13.1
Season APEX 205.1Event APEX 78.91Rank 12Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 219.7Event APEX 120.62Rank 3Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.7Event APEX 31.92Rank 16Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 80
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 679.8 ±11.2
Season APEX 247.7Event APEX 167.54Rank 2Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 262Event APEX 162.28Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 170.1Event APEX 1.97Rank 32Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7421, 6017, 5932
82
/ 100 compatProjected
231.5 pts
~0.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 7421, 6017, 5932
Auto
42.1 19%
Teleop
119.5 53%
Endgame
63.4 28%
Strengths
- · 6017 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 3478, 4635, 6200
82
/ 100 compatProjected
331.8 pts
~1.9 RP (regional)
Teams: 3478, 4635, 6200
Auto
77.5 24%
Teleop
181.4 56%
Endgame
65.2 20%
Strengths
- · 3478 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.87 · Blue 1.93
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setRegional
Red projected score231.5pts
Blue projected score331.8pts
Red win probability22%
Event bonus sample174alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -100.3
- Score range
- 210–353
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
484.5Season APEX679.8
42.1Auto77.5
119.5Teleop181.4
63.4Endgame65.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 71 |
| teleop | 85 | 49 |
| endgame | 52 | 46 |
| foul | 5 | 25 |
| total | 188 | 191 |
Result
Final score
188 – 191
Prediction correct · off by 92.1 pts
Match videos
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