Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.25 – 172.9

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

146 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.5 ±12.2

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 85.47Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 0.78Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 67Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±12.2

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 4.4Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 76.47Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 92.03Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2183, 9153, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 9153, 8808

Auto

25.9 19%

Teleop

83.3 60%

Endgame

30.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10101, 10661, 6184

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10101, 10661, 6184

Auto

16.8 10%

Teleop

94.1 57%

Endgame

53.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score153.3pts

Blue projected score172.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.7
Score range: 129–197
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.5Season APEX359.8

25.9Auto16.8

83.3Teleop94.1

30Endgame53.4

19Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	31
teleop	41	50
endgame	33	27
foul	45	20
total	146	128

Result

Final score

146 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 26.1 pts

Match videos

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