Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

392.54 – 168.34

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

434 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±11.2

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 185.87Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 41.97Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 164.7Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.5 ±12.2

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 90.19Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 6.3Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 71.85Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 9405, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

392.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 9405, 8044

Auto

68.9 18%

Teleop

237.4 62%

Endgame

76.1 20%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 9153, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.3 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 9153, 8808

Auto

26.5 17%

Teleop

92.2 60%

Endgame

34.4 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score392.5pts

Blue projected score168.3pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.2
Score range: 145–416
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 534 vs event baseline 128.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686Season APEX452.5

68.9Auto26.5

237.4Teleop92.2

76.1Endgame34.4

0Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	24
teleop	255	51
endgame	67	15
foul	25	10
total	434	100

Result

Final score

434 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 54.9 pts

Match videos

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