Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.76 – 164.26

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±12.2

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 91.93Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 78.64Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 4.19Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.2 ±13.3

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 84.12Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 10.81Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 69.33Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6184, 10661, 10101

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6184, 10661, 10101

Auto

17.0 10%

Teleop

100.6 60%

Endgame

49.0 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3039, 4107, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 4107, 1912

Auto

30.8 19%

Teleop

88.0 55%

Endgame

41.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score174.8pts

Blue projected score164.3pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 10.5
Score range: 141–198
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 128.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

359.8Season APEX475.2

17Auto30.8

100.6Teleop88

49Endgame41.3

22Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	16
teleop	67	51
endgame	71	32
foul	10	5
total	164	104

Result

Final score

164 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 35.5 pts

Match videos

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