Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.78 – 158.72

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

185 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280.4 ±15

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 5.05Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 61.92Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 47.81Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.7 ±13.3

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 51.73Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 49.96Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 57.03Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9309, 456, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.8 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9309, 456, 4336

Auto

16.1 15%

Teleop

57.8 54%

Endgame

33.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 3616, 3753

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 6998, 3616, 3753

Auto

40.1 26%

Teleop

79.1 52%

Endgame

34.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score114.8pts

Blue projected score158.7pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.9
Score range: 92–182
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 127.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280.4Season APEX573.7

16.1Auto40.1

57.8Teleop79.1

33.6Endgame34

66Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	54
teleop	110	138
endgame	55	41
foul	0	0
total	185	233

Result

Final score

185 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 72.3 pts

Match videos

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