Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.47 – 182.63

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592 ±10.4

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 18.4Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 79.9Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 117.17Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 359.8 ±12.2

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 6.49Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 82.52Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 93.62Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10217, 2556, 4087

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 10217, 2556, 4087

Auto

36.8 17%

Teleop

133.4 62%

Endgame

44.1 21%

Strengths

· 4087 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10101, 10661, 6184

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.6 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 10101, 10661, 6184

Auto

13.8 8%

Teleop

112.3 63%

Endgame

51.7 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score215.5pts

Blue projected score182.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.8
Score range: 160–238
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 387 vs event baseline 125.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592Season APEX359.8

36.8Auto13.8

133.4Teleop112.3

44.1Endgame51.7

18Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	26
teleop	134	65
endgame	52	42
foul	15	20
total	234	153

Result

Final score

234 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Match videos

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