Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

376.48 – 94.52

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 92 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±11.2

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 158.58Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 179.84Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 38.06Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 280.4 ±15

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX -0.04Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 54.76Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 39.8Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8044, 4400, 9405

/ 100 compat

Projected

376.5 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 8044, 4400, 9405

Auto

62.3 17%

Teleop

222.3 61%

Endgame

77.2 21%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9309, 456, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9309, 456, 4336

Auto

11.3 13%

Teleop

48.4 55%

Endgame

27.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score376.5pts

Blue projected score94.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 282
Score range: 73–398
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 655 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686Season APEX280.4

62.3Auto11.3

222.3Teleop48.4

77.2Endgame27.7

0Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	33
teleop	294	95
endgame	77	54
foul	0	10
total	463	192

Result

Final score

463 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 92 pts

Match videos

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