Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.79 – 152.34

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

214 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.7 ±13.3

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 57.97Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 58.36Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 62.46Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 452.5 ±12.2

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 85.29Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 0.77Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 66.28Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6998, 3616, 3753

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.8 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6998, 3616, 3753

Auto

45.1 26%

Teleop

92.6 53%

Endgame

37.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2183, 9153, 8808

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 2183, 9153, 8808

Auto

25.7 19%

Teleop

76.7 58%

Endgame

30.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score178.8pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 128–203
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 135.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.7Season APEX452.5

45.1Auto25.7

92.6Teleop76.7

37.8Endgame30.6

22Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	43
teleop	87	127
endgame	91	30
foul	5	0
total	214	200

Result

Final score

214 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 41.4 pts

Match videos

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