Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

399.71 – 228.71

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

457 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 686 ±11.2

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 188.25Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 43.48Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 167.98Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 592 ±10.4

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 119.69Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 24.31Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 84.71Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 9405, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.7 pts

~2.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 9405, 8044

Auto

72.1 19%

Teleop

241.0 62%

Endgame

73.6 19%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4087, 10217, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.7 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 4087, 10217, 2556

Auto

36.7 16%

Teleop

141.9 63%

Endgame

47.3 21%

Strengths

· 4087 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score399.7pts

Blue projected score228.7pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 171
Score range: 205–424
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 634 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

686Season APEX592

72.1Auto36.7

241Teleop141.9

73.6Endgame47.3

0Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	40
teleop	232	94
endgame	99	43
foul	35	0
total	457	177

Result

Final score

457 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Match videos

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