Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.78 – 171.42

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 51.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 576.2 ±11.7

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 93.44Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 35.53Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 61.81Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.7 ±13.3

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 56.04Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 55.92Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 59.46Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2992, 7094, 364

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2992, 7094, 364

Auto

40.4 22%

Teleop

106.6 58%

Endgame

37.9 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 3616, 3753

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.4 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 6998, 3616, 3753

Auto

42.4 25%

Teleop

89.5 54%

Endgame

35.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score190.8pts

Blue projected score171.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.4
Score range: 147–215
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 132.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

576.2Season APEX573.7

40.4Auto42.4

106.6Teleop89.5

37.9Endgame35.2

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	60
teleop	34	106
endgame	48	52
foul	0	0
total	134	218

Result

Final score

134 – 218

Prediction missed · off by 51.7 pts

Match videos

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