Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

75.64 – 33.97

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

217 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 79.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.5 ±16.4

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 35.64Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 19.71Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 20.29Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.2 ±19.7

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 20Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11265Rockbotics -FRC

Provisional

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 9.11Rank 39Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 4.86Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3606, 4087, 456

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 3606, 4087, 456

Auto

19.8 31%

Teleop

30.9 48%

Endgame

14.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1912, 11265, 11343

/ 100 compat

Projected

34 pts

~1.0 RP (regional)

Teams: 1912, 11265, 11343

Auto

11.6 34%

Teleop

11.3 33%

Endgame

11.1 33%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score75.6pts

Blue projected score34pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.7
Score range: 17–93
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 93.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.5Season APEX290.2

19.8Auto11.6

30.9Teleop11.3

14.2Endgame11.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	11
teleop	133	24
endgame	48	11
foul	5	5
total	217	51

Result

Final score

217 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 79.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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