Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

44.55 – 70.55

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

27 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±20

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX -Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

590Chahta Warriors

Provisional

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 10.57Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.3 ±14.5

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 36.57Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX -Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX -Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7474, 6184, 590

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~1.3 RP (regional)

Teams: 7474, 6184, 590

Auto

13.1 29%

Teleop

23.3 52%

Endgame

8.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3753, 5045, 10929

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.5 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 3753, 5045, 10929

Auto

19.9 32%

Teleop

31.3 50%

Endgame

10.8 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score44.5pts

Blue projected score70.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26
Score range: 27–89
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 74 vs event baseline 101.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274Season APEX349.3

2.9Auto9.7

6.3Teleop14.3

1.4Endgame4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	15
teleop	8	20
endgame	2	12
foul	0	0
total	27	47

Result

Final score

27 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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