Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

43.76 – 166.11

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

42 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 119.9 ±22.5

11345Long Beach RoboBearcats

Provisional

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 2.04Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 29.45Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 12.27Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 250.6 ±16.4

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 13.84Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 71.24Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 81.03Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11345, 1927, 3606

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.8 pts

~0.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11345, 1927, 3606

Auto

20.5 58%

Teleop

4.6 13%

Endgame

10.4 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10655, 10661, 6184

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~2.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 10655, 10661, 6184

Auto

12.0 7%

Teleop

97.2 58%

Endgame

58.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score43.8pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -122.4
Score range: 22–188
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 306 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

119.9Season APEX250.6

20.5Auto12

4.6Teleop97.2

10.4Endgame58.2

0Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	32
teleop	7	178
endgame	1	54
foul	15	0
total	42	264

Result

Final score

42 – 264

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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