Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.01 – 18.56

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 510.2 ±12.4

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX 5.01Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 65.17Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 111.83Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 241.6 ±17.7

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 7.02Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 3.21Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10309Jayhawks Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 8.33Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10943, 8808, 4087

/ 100 compat

Projected

182 pts

~2.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 10943, 8808, 4087

Auto

31.6 18%

Teleop

119.3 67%

Endgame

27.8 16%

Strengths

· 4087 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 538, 4107, 10309

/ 100 compat

Projected

18.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 538, 4107, 10309

Auto

18.7 87%

Teleop

9.5 44%

Endgame

-6.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.22 · Blue 0.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score182pts

Blue projected score18.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.5
Score range: -3–204
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 121.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

510.2Season APEX241.6

31.6Auto18.7

119.3Teleop9.5

27.8Endgame-6.7

0Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	4
teleop	152	41
endgame	20	14
foul	5	15
total	223	74

Result

Final score

223 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 48.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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