Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.16 – 262.88

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 30 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 427.5 ±15.9

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 21.43Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 10.83Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

590Chahta Warriors

Provisional

Season APEX 102.4Event APEX 32.9Rank 23Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637 ±11.7

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 81Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 89.28Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 92.6Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10217, 10101, 590

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.2 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10217, 10101, 590

Auto

10.9 18%

Teleop

35.2 57%

Endgame

15.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3039, 2556, 2992

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.9 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3039, 2556, 2992

Auto

39.5 15%

Teleop

152.5 59%

Endgame

67.5 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.54 · Blue 2.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score65.2pts

Blue projected score262.9pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -197.7
Score range: 43–285
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 268 vs event baseline 121.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

427.5Season APEX637

10.9Auto39.5

35.2Teleop152.5

15.7Endgame67.5

20Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	42
teleop	21	125
endgame	4	53
foul	15	0
total	48	220

Result

Final score

48 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 30 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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