Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

265.84 – 26.63

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

191 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 486.3 ±13.5

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 189.43Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 12.46Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 63.95Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.3 ±20

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 8.17Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 16.15Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 2.31Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4400, 9717, 456

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.8 pts

~2.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 4400, 9717, 456

Auto

25.6 10%

Teleop

160.8 62%

Endgame

71.8 28%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11287, 9734, 9153

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.6 pts

~0.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11287, 9734, 9153

Auto

18.2 67%

Teleop

-10.3 0%

Endgame

19.1 71%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score265.8pts

Blue projected score26.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 239.2
Score range: 5–288
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

486.3Season APEX223.3

25.6Auto18.2

160.8Teleop-10.3

71.8Endgame19.1

60Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	12
teleop	103	1
endgame	26	1
foul	40	5
total	191	19

Result

Final score

191 – 19

Prediction correct · off by 41.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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