Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.87 – 146.82

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 59 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 229.6 ±17.3

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 22.45Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 22.28Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 92.14Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.6 ±19.1

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 3.58Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -4.72Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 147.96Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9503, 2221, 2183

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 9503, 2221, 2183

Auto

40.2 31%

Teleop

61.2 48%

Endgame

26.3 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11343, 7474, 8044

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 11343, 7474, 8044

Auto

36.4 26%

Teleop

89.8 64%

Endgame

15.1 11%

Strengths

· 8044 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.9pts

Blue projected score146.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.9
Score range: 115–169
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 120.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

229.6Season APEX448.6

40.2Auto36.4

61.2Teleop89.8

26.3Endgame15.1

54Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	64
teleop	44	110
endgame	40	73
foul	15	0
total	119	247

Result

Final score

119 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 59 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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