Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

108.5 – 73.37

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322 ±17.3

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 13.04Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 68.15Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 27.31Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 299 ±15

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 3.93Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 18.3Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 51.14Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10655, 1912, 10961

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.5 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10655, 1912, 10961

Auto

16.7 15%

Teleop

63.9 59%

Endgame

28.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 538, 10929, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 538, 10929, 3616

Auto

29.8 41%

Teleop

23.5 32%

Endgame

19.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score108.5pts

Blue projected score73.4pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.1
Score range: 51–131
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 120.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322Season APEX299

16.7Auto29.8

63.9Teleop23.5

28.2Endgame19.3

108Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	30
teleop	48	42
endgame	26	24
foul	0	0
total	109	96

Result

Final score

109 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 11.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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