Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

202.5 – 214.03

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

162 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 444.2 ±11.7

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 60.2Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 68.93Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 73.37Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 489.8 ±15.9

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX 1.35Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 196.3Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 16.38Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3616, 8808, 10661

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.5 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 3616, 8808, 10661

Auto

27.4 15%

Teleop

113.8 61%

Endgame

46.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10101, 4400, 9503

/ 100 compat

Projected

214 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 10101, 4400, 9503

Auto

38.3 19%

Teleop

117.7 59%

Endgame

42.4 21%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score202.5pts

Blue projected score214pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.5
Score range: 177–240
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 336 vs event baseline 142.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

444.2Season APEX489.8

27.4Auto38.3

113.8Teleop117.7

46.5Endgame42.4

37Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	29
teleop	75	97
endgame	39	18
foul	20	30
total	162	174

Result

Final score

162 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 40.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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