Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.32 – 105.86

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

245 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 478.4 ±12.2

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 80.83Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9405RouxBots

Season APEX 74.5Event APEX 32.08Rank 41Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 94

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 39.41Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220 ±16.9

11107FARMBots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.8Event APEX 13.14Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10661Blue Phoenix

Season APEX 92.2Event APEX 73.88Rank 14Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 18.84Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2556, 9405, 3753

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 2556, 9405, 3753

Auto

29.2 20%

Teleop

71.7 50%

Endgame

42.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11107, 10661, 9717

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 11107, 10661, 9717

Auto

6.5 7%

Teleop

54.8 58%

Endgame

33.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score152.3pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.5
Score range: 84–174
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

478.4Season APEX220

29.2Auto6.5

71.7Teleop54.8

42.4Endgame33.4

23Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	14
teleop	151	38
endgame	54	27
foul	5	0
total	245	79

Result

Final score

245 – 79

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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