Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

20.18 – 390.2

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 110 ±22.5

10309Jayhawks Robotics

Provisional

Season APEX 34.8Event APEX 7.03Rank 46Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 17.25Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7474JXN United

Provisional

Season APEX 60.1Event APEX -4.1Rank 20Record 4-2-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 858.2 ±11.2

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 53.33Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8044Denham Venom

Season APEX 340.9Event APEX 146.66Rank 2Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4400Cerbotics - Peñoles

Season APEX 270.6Event APEX 190.21Rank 1Record 9-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10309, 3606, 7474

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.2 pts

~0.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 10309, 3606, 7474

Auto

14.3 100%

Teleop

19.8 100%

Endgame

-20.0 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 8044, 4400

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.2 pts

~2.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 6998, 8044, 4400

Auto

79.8 21%

Teleop

229.0 61%

Endgame

66.7 18%

Strengths

· 4400 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.38 · Blue 2.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score20.2pts

Blue projected score390.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -370
Score range: -1–411
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 448 vs event baseline 118.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

110Season APEX858.2

14.3Auto79.8

19.8Teleop229

-20Endgame66.7

36Consistency52

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	41
teleop	4	269
endgame	5	98
foul	10	0
total	40	408

Result

Final score

40 – 408

Prediction correct · off by 18.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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