Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.42 – 87.96

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

76 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.9 ±16.8

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 14.66Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 42.34Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 104.42Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 313.9 ±14.5

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 29.99Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX 3.27Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3616Team Phenomena

Season APEX 128.4Event APEX 54.7Rank 34Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11343, 7094, 2183

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.4 pts

~1.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 11343, 7094, 2183

Auto

40.6 26%

Teleop

85.6 55%

Endgame

29.1 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10961, 9153, 3616

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~0.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10961, 9153, 3616

Auto

25.0 33%

Teleop

27.4 36%

Endgame

23.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.8 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score161.4pts

Blue projected score88pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.5
Score range: 67–182
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 151 vs event baseline 118.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.9Season APEX313.9

40.6Auto25

85.6Teleop27.4

29.1Endgame23.4

63Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	27
teleop	21	26
endgame	16	22
foul	10	0
total	76	75

Result

Final score

76 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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