Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

53.39 – 104.49

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

138 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 402.5 ±15.9

364Team Fusion 364

Season APEX 200.2Event APEX 47.79Rank 4Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX -2.63Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9734Jasper County Devil Dogs

Provisional

Season APEX 46.2Event APEX 8.23Rank 37Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 336.2 ±17.3

11287Canton Rising Stars

Provisional

Season APEX 64.2Event APEX 12.57Rank 32Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 20.96Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

1912Team Combustion

Season APEX 202.5Event APEX 70.96Rank 10Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 364, 10101, 9734

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.4 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 364, 10101, 9734

Auto

14.9 30%

Teleop

22.0 44%

Endgame

13.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11287, 10929, 1912

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11287, 10929, 1912

Auto

20.5 19%

Teleop

69.9 64%

Endgame

19.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score53.4pts

Blue projected score104.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.1
Score range: 32–125
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

402.5Season APEX336.2

14.9Auto20.5

22Teleop69.9

13.3Endgame19.1

43Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	26
teleop	57	23
endgame	37	35
foul	5	0
total	138	84

Result

Final score

138 – 84

Prediction missed · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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