Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.33 – 135.95

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

202 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.8 ±15.5

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 102.66Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 22.53Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 11.14Rank 21Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290 ±15

2221FHS Robodawgs

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 37.82Rank 25Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

3039Wildcat Robotics

Season APEX 167Event APEX 93.76Rank 9Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9309Metal Mages

Season APEX 72.5Event APEX 4.37Rank 13Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4087, 9503, 10217

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.3 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 4087, 9503, 10217

Auto

25.1 19%

Teleop

83.9 65%

Endgame

20.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2221, 3039, 9309

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 2221, 3039, 9309

Auto

19.6 15%

Teleop

66.1 49%

Endgame

48.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score136.3pts

Blue projected score136pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.4
Score range: 115–157
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 118.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.8Season APEX290

25.1Auto19.6

83.9Teleop66.1

20Endgame48.2

41Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	24
teleop	103	20
endgame	50	13
foul	0	5
total	202	62

Result

Final score

202 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 69.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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