Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

98.47 – 136.49

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 451.6 ±13.5

2992The S.S. Prometheus

Season APEX 264.7Event APEX 81.95Rank 8Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4107Team Storm

Season APEX 105.7Event APEX 7.03Rank 35Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5045SpartaBot

Season APEX 81.2Event APEX 9.49Rank 22Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 332.1 ±16.8

11107FARMBots

Provisional

Season APEX 22.8Event APEX 12.22Rank 43Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3753BulahBots!

Season APEX 198.6Event APEX 50.26Rank 7Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 74.01Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2992, 4107, 5045

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.5 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 2992, 4107, 5045

Auto

15.4 17%

Teleop

55.4 60%

Endgame

22.3 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11107, 3753, 456

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.5 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 11107, 3753, 456

Auto

20.4 15%

Teleop

66.1 49%

Endgame

47.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score98.5pts

Blue projected score136.5pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -38
Score range: 77–157
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 118.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

451.6Season APEX332.1

15.4Auto20.4

55.4Teleop66.1

22.3Endgame47.5

121Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	22
teleop	75	38
endgame	17	25
foul	0	10
total	126	95

Result

Final score

126 – 95

Prediction missed · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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