Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

39.04 – 17.67

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163.1 ±20.5

10655PHS Spartan Synergy

Provisional

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 14.94Rank 29Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

3606BearMetal

Provisional

Season APEX 15.1Event APEX 18.43Rank 38Record 3-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

538Renaissance Robotics

Season APEX 101.1Event APEX 5.67Rank 42Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.7 ±15.6

9717Poultronix

Season APEX 105Event APEX 4.28Rank 33Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 89

5863Hypercubed

Season APEX 96.5Event APEX -13.28Rank 40Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 88

4336Ramageddon Robotics

Season APEX 97.2Event APEX 26.67Rank 15Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10655, 3606, 538

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~1.5 RP (regional)

Teams: 10655, 3606, 538

Auto

13.9 33%

Teleop

18.7 44%

Endgame

9.7 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9717, 5863, 4336

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.7 pts

~1.2 RP (regional)

Teams: 9717, 5863, 4336

Auto

14.5 99%

Teleop

1.9 13%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score39pts

Blue projected score17.7pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.4
Score range: -4–61
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 119.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163.1Season APEX298.7

13.9Auto14.5

18.7Teleop1.9

9.7Endgame-1.7

56Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	17
teleop	11	20
endgame	4	48
foul	0	20
total	36	105

Result

Final score

36 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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