Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.6 – 103.66

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.8 ±16.4

1927Tempest

Provisional

Season APEX 51Event APEX 13.11Rank 30Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

6184C4 (Capital City Chaotic Coders)

Season APEX 111.5Event APEX 54.8Rank 11Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2556RadioActive Roaches

Season APEX 205.3Event APEX 62.69Rank 6Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 343.8 ±16.9

8808SWLA Tech Pirates

Season APEX 223.6Event APEX 52.08Rank 19Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10961Hyper Wave

Season APEX 72.6Event APEX 34.31Rank 44Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

11343SoulCity Circuits (JPS Robotics)

Provisional

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 17.27Rank 45Record 2-7-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1927, 6184, 2556

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.6 pts

~1.7 RP (regional)

Teams: 1927, 6184, 2556

Auto

27.0 20%

Teleop

72.1 53%

Endgame

36.2 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8808, 10961, 11343

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.1 RP (regional)

Teams: 8808, 10961, 11343

Auto

17.2 18%

Teleop

59.5 63%

Endgame

18.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score130.6pts

Blue projected score103.7pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.9
Score range: 83–152
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 372 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.8Season APEX343.8

27Auto17.2

72.1Teleop59.5

36.2Endgame18.1

135Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	14
teleop	146	51
endgame	64	34
foul	25	15
total	258	114

Result

Final score

258 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 68.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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