Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

1.28 – 98.76

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±17.7

1421Team CHAOS

Season APEX 97.9Event APEX 3.32Rank 36Record 3-6-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10943WJH RoboStangs

Season APEX 68.9Event APEX -3.38Rank 26Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

11345Long Beach RoboBearcats

Provisional

Season APEX 53.8Event APEX 1.34Rank 28Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385 ±12.7

10101Critical Hit

Season APEX 156.1Event APEX -4.85Rank 18Record 5-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9153Bearcat Robotics

Season APEX 112.9Event APEX -2.09Rank 31Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2183Tigerbots

Season APEX 116Event APEX 105.7Rank 5Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1421, 10943, 11345

/ 100 compat

Projected

1.3 pts

~0.8 RP (regional)

Teams: 1421, 10943, 11345

Auto

16.0 100%

Teleop

-5.4 0%

Endgame

-5.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10101, 9153, 2183

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.8 pts

~1.9 RP (regional)

Teams: 10101, 9153, 2183

Auto

23.6 25%

Teleop

40.7 44%

Endgame

28.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 0.85 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score1.3pts

Blue projected score98.8pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.5
Score range: -20–120
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 179 vs event baseline 119.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.6Season APEX385

16Auto23.6

-5.4Teleop40.7

-5.6Endgame28.8

34Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	39
teleop	3	65
endgame	16	27
foul	10	5
total	43	136

Result

Final score

43 – 136

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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