Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.32 – 154.58

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.5 ±13.5

7094Alpha Omega

Season APEX 111.3Event APEX 40.39Rank 24Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4087Voodoo Voltage

Season APEX 217.7Event APEX 98.11Rank 3Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10929Tarpon Robotics

Season APEX 69.5Event APEX 11.82Rank 27Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 86

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.5 ±17.2

6998Unipards

Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 46.94Rank 12Record 6-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

456Siege Robotics

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 78.83Rank 16Record 4-5-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9503EF5 CHAOS

Provisional

Season APEX 63.1Event APEX 28.81Rank 17Record 4-5-0Status provisionalConfidence 71

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7094, 4087, 10929

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~1.4 RP (regional)

Teams: 7094, 4087, 10929

Auto

30.5 20%

Teleop

84.0 56%

Endgame

36.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6998, 456, 9503

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.6 RP (regional)

Teams: 6998, 456, 9503

Auto

30.6 22%

Teleop

77.3 56%

Endgame

31.2 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (regional)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setRegional

Red projected score150.3pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample168alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Regional qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -4.3
Score range: 129–176
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 352 vs event baseline 118.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.5Season APEX420.5

30.5Auto30.6

84Teleop77.3

36.4Endgame31.2

73Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	38
teleop	115	55
endgame	40	48
foul	5	0
total	211	141

Result

Final score

211 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 37.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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